These are some of the applications that got pitched at the recently held Mobile Garage at the iHub:-

Look Around – An application that is used to look around where you are and then gives you directions and suggestions to bookmark places you’d like to go again in your map

Polar Sleeper – Allows you to sleep by playing sounds of rain and relaxing music so you can sleep. Application sends a Goodnight SMS to your friends telling them ‘walale salama’. App auto-closes after 15 minutes of activity and is going to be for free on the Google Play Store. Revenue model is to sell unlocks for more sounds as you do in-app purchases

SomoLeo -  (J2Me App by Jonathan Kibet) Helps on to sell and buy stuff  using deals online in the country. Only allows you to post and see deals from your own country. The App shields you from giving out your personal contacts online (has a privacy policy). It also allows feedback by sharing it with your friends (email, social networks or text message). Allows Ads and In-App purchases but main revenue stream is per download revenue. Available on S40 and S60 and is more for feature-ish phones than smartphones.

SomoLeo – an SMS based application that helps the catholic parishioners get daily readings of the church.

Maseno Mobi Map-  An android application that helps students lecturers search for various departments/locations within the school.

Mbegu Halisi – App to Advice farmers on the best seeds to be planted at what times in the year. Didn’t know what broccoli and where to plant what. App allows you to get photos to know what you’re planting.  Categorizes seeds and gives descriptions of the of where and what to plant and what the results should be. The App is Free. I hear there’s a similar App in Australia called For Profit where a farmer launches an app and is given directions on what is the best crop to plant on his farm to achieve maximum profit in the coming planting season.

Buddy App – Allows you to request someone’s number or other relevant information from another person’s phone via text using ‘Send me *Kamau*bingo* and it returns with that person’s number in form of an SMS. It would also work if you leave your phone number at home and you need to get some information from it urgently. You would just need to SMS the correct string and it returns with a response. It is available on Google Play.

Jua Katiba Yako (Know Your Constitution) – Allows Kenyans to know more about their Constitution by giving daily readings. Main features are a searchable database for article numbers and keywords, a Swahili version, offline capability, links to county info,. The premium version has interpretation into other languages, proposed parliament bills and approved bills as well (updates on the Law). App is available on Android and is soon coming to BB10 OS and iOS. The feature phone version is also in the works.

Results on who won will be on a separate blog-post.

The following is a post by Marissa Mayer on Tumblr announcing the acquisition by Yahoo:

I’m delighted to announce that we’ve reached an agreement to acquire Tumblr!

We promise not to screw it up.  Tumblr is incredibly special and has a great thing going.  We will operate Tumblr independently.  David Karp will remain CEO.  The product roadmap, their team, their wit and irreverence will all remain the same as will their mission to empower creators to make their best work and get it in front of the audience they deserve.  Yahoo! will help Tumblr get even better, faster.

Tumblr has built an amazing place to follow the world’s creators. From art to architecture, fashion to food, Tumblr hosts 105 million different blogs.  With more than 300 million monthly unique visitors and 120,000 signups every day, Tumblr is one of thefastest-growing media networks in the world.  Tumblr sees 900 posts per second (!) and 24 billion minutes spent onsite each month.  On mobile, more than half of Tumblr’s users are using the mobile app, and those users do an average of 7 sessions per day.  Tumblr’s tremendous popularity and engagement among creators, curators and audiences of all ages brings a significant new community of users to the Yahoo! network.  The combination of Tumblr+Yahoo! could grow Yahoo!’s audience by 50% to more than a billion monthly visitors, and could grow traffic by approximately 20%.

In terms of working together, Tumblr can deploy Yahoo!’s personalization technology and search infrastructure to help its users discover creators, bloggers, and content they’ll love.  In turn, Tumblr brings 50 billion blog posts (and 75 million more arriving each day) to Yahoo!’s media network and search experiences.  The two companies will also work together to create advertising opportunities that are seamless and enhance user experience.

As I’ve said before, companies are all about people.  Getting to know the Tumblr team has been really amazing.  I’ve long held the view that in all things art and design, you can feel the spirit and demeanor of those who create them.  That’s why it was no surprise to me that David Karp is one of the nicest, most empathetic people I’ve ever met.  He’s also one of the most perceptive, capable entrepreneurs I’ve worked with.  His respect for Tumblr’s community of creators is awesome, and I’m absolutely delighted to have him and his entire team join Yahoo!.

Both Tumblr and Yahoo! share a vision to make the Internet the ultimate creative canvas by focusing on users, design — and building experiences that delight and inspire the world every day.

The question everyone is asking is whether the Galaxy S4 will outperform the very successful Samsung Galaxy S3 which surpassed the 3 million mark in just 21 days after launch.

Samsung in Korea has some numbers for us – it has shipped over six million units as at 10^th may 2013 which is just 14 days after launch. What is even more interesting is that about 4 million of these units were sold within 4 days of launch – This is about 1 million units a day.

What this means is that Samsung has managed to sell about 42,000 Samsung Galaxy S4 units per hour in the first 4 days. These are huge numbers.

Safaricom in Kenya had good numbers on pre-order as well according to rumours. So did Bharti Airtel. In Bangladesh, Reuters reported that there were long lines all waiting to get their hands on the sleek device. The reaction was the same in the UAE according to Emirates 247.

image courtesy - itpro

Symantec Corporation Internet Security Threat Report, Volume 18 (ISTR) has in a 2012 study revealed a 42 % upsurge targeted attacks compared to 2011 results on the same.  Designed to steal intellectual property, targeted cyber-espionage attacks are increasingly hitting the manufacturing sector as well as small businesses, which are the target of 31% of these attacks. In addition, consumers remain vulnerable to ransom-ware and mobile threats, particularly on the Android platform.

Here is a detailed World and Africa Rankings Chart report. “This year’s ISTR shows that cyber-criminals aren’t slowing down, and they continue to devise new ways to steal information from organizations of all sizes,” said Sheldon Hand, territory manager, Indian Ocean Islands, West and Central Africa, Symantec. “The sophistication of attacks coupled with today’s IT complexities, such as virtualization, mobility and cloud, require organizations to remain proactive and use ‘defense in depth’ security measures to stay ahead of attacks.”

The Internet Security Threat Report’s Key Highlights include the following:

Small Businesses Are the Path of Least Resistance - Targeted attacks on businesses with fewer than 250 employees are growing. Small businesses (SMEs) are now the target of 31% of all attacks, a threefold increase from 2011. While small businesses may feel they are immune to targeted attacks, cyber-criminals are enticed by these organizations’ bank account information, customer data, intellectual property and the knowledge that they often lack adequate security practices and infrastructure.

Manufacturing Sector and Knowledge Workers Become Primary Targets - Shifting from governments, manufacturing has moved to the top of the list of industries targeted for attacks in 2012.  Often by going after manufacturing companies in the supply chain, attackers gain access to sensitive information of a larger company. In addition, in 2012 the most commonly targeted victims of these types of attacks were knowledge workers (27%) with access to intellectual property and those in sales (24%).

Mobile Malware Put Consumers and Businesses at Risk - In 2012, mobile malware increased by 58%, and 32% of all mobile threats attempted to steal information, such as e-mail addresses and phone numbers. Android’s market share, its open platform and the multiple distribution methods available to distribute malicious apps, make it the go-to platform for attackers.

Bharti Airtel, one of the world’s leading MSP with operations in 20 countries across Asia and Africa, says it is still completely committed to Uganda and said it will “continue to make investments and offer world-class and affordable services to customers in the country”. Airtel’s acquisition of Warid Telecom has received approvals from the Uganda Communications Commission. With this, Airtel will further consolidate its position as the second largest mobile operator in Uganda with a combined customer base of over 7.2 million and market share of over 39%.

Warid customers will be able to retain their existing mobile numbers and continue to enjoy benefits such as remaining balances in their SIM and existing services. In addition, Warid customers will benefit from Airtel’s ‘One Network’ across 20 countries and get access to innovative products and roaming benefits on successful completion of integration.

Airtel Uganda Managing Director Mr. V.G. Somasekhar said, “We welcome Warid customers to the Airtel global network and assure them of a world-class experience. This acquisition will create a superior and wider network and we will invest more in key areas such as technological innovation and customer service. Further, the existing Warid customer will also be enjoying all Airtel services such as the widest 3G coverage, Blackberry services and superior roaming services on successful completion of integration. During this transition, I want to reassure Warid customers of our commitment to providing world-class, affordable services to customers in Uganda. They should also be assured of the security and continuity of Warid Pesa services during this period”

He added: “After the successful completion of integration, Warid customers will begin to enjoy benefits of the 0ne network with lower roaming rates across Africa and South Asia that other Airtel Customers have been enjoying. It’s a great beginning to a journey with our loyal Uganda customers and for the economy as a whole.”

With presence across 17 African countries, Airtel is the largest telecom service provider across the Continent in terms of geographical reach and had over 62 million customers at the end of quarter ended December 31, 2012. Globally, Airtel is ranked as the 4^th largest mobile services provider in terms of customer base.

Image Courtesy, mynokiablog

Nokia has unveiled the Nokia Asha 501 – the 1^st device to run on the new Asha platform, designed to make the experience faster and more responsive and also to helps devs. push their applications and monetize them on the Nokia store.

Standout design, innovative user interface – The Nokia Asha 501, available in 6 colours, makes higher-end design and quality accessible to more people. It comes in just two parts: a durable, removable casing and the scratch-resistant glass display, which features a 3inch, capacitive touchscreen and a single ‘back’ button. It weighs 98 grams. The device offers a simple swipe to access everything on 2 main screens-

Home – a traditional, icon-based view for launching individual apps or accessing a specific feature, like the dialler or phone settings

Fastlane – inspired by how people really use their phone i.e. recently accessed contacts, social networks and apps, unique to each person, are stored and presented in Fastlane. It provides a ‘record’ of how the phone is used, giving people a glimpse of their past, present and future activity, and helping them multi-task by providing easy access to their favorite features.

Product specifications and availability - The Nokia Asha 501 is available in single or EasySwap Dual SIM models and all come with WiFi and Bluetooth. Some other specs on this device are:

1. Dimensions:  99.2 x 58 x 12.1 mm; 98 grams
2. Camera: 3.2 MP
3. Single SIM standby time: up to 48 days***
4. Dual SIM standby time: up to 26 days***
5. Talk time: up to 17 hours
6. Additional memory of 4GB (card included in box), expandable up to 32GB
7. Forty free EA Games worth €75 downloadable from Nokia Store
8. Available colours: Bright Red, Bright Green, Cyan, Yellow, White and Black
9. Suggested pricing is 99 USD before taxes and subsidies – will probably come in for under 10,000 KES

Better personal Internet experiences – the Asha 501 comes with data compressing Nokia Xpress Browser pre-loaded. It also features Nokia Xpress Now, a new Web application that recommends content based on location, preferences and trending topics. It will be available via the Browser homepage or as a download from Nokia Store.

“Nokia has surpassed expectations of what’s achievable in the sub-100 USD phone category with a new Asha handset that is unlike any other, with design cues from Lumia and a mix of features, services and affordability that is valued by price-conscious buyers,” said Neil Mawston, executive director, Global Wireless Practice, Strategy Analytics. “This is a welcome addition to the market and a refreshing option for consumers looking to upgrade from feature phones.”

The Nokia Asha 501 has been built to give people the best possible mobile experiences at an affordable price. It is highly efficient, with an industry-leading standby time of up to 48 days* and is the first smartphone built on the new Asha platform, which leverages Nokia’s investments in “Smarterphone”, a company Nokia acquired in 2012. The new Asha platform provides developers with an open, standards-based environment for creating quality apps for consumers. Developers can create apps for the Nokia Asha 501 that will be compatible with future Asha platform-based devices.

Nokia gives devs the chance to make more money through the global reach of Nokia Store and tools like Nokia In-App Payment and Nokia Advertising Exchange (NAX), as well as Nokia’s unparalleled operator billing network.

Many of the most popular applications are already available or in development for the Nokia Asha platform, including CNN, eBuddy, ESPN, Facebook, Foursquare, Line, LinkedIn, Nimbuzz, Pictelligent, The Weather Channel, Twitter, WeChat, World of Red Bull and games from Electronic Arts, Gameloft, Indiagames, Namco Bandai and Reliance Games. WhatsApp and other key partners continue to explore new Asha. The HERE experience, based on Nokia’s leading location-based platform, will also be available as a download for the Nokia Asha 501, starting in Q3 2013 and will initially include basic mapping services.

Nokia, Facebook and mobile network operator Airtel announced they have joined forces to offer data-free access to the standalone Facebook app, as well as the Facebook Mobile. By the end of the second quarter, current Airtel subscribers in Africa and India** will be able to enjoy unlimited, data-free access to Facebook from their Nokia Asha 501 for a limited period of time. “This bundle is a great way to discover Facebook on your Nokia Asha and enjoy the experience for longer without worrying about data charges,” said Vaughan Smith, VP, Mobile Partnerships, Facebook. “Working in close partnership with Nokia and global operators made this offer possible and we are excited to help connect the world on Facebook.”

There’s a full gallery on My Nokia Blog.

I am a big fan of ICT; especially as an enabler in emerging markets. That is why I was excited sometime in 2012 when Google announced their solution to carrying coins as fare in your pocket. It is the Beba Pay Card that is to enable daily commuters to pay from a debit card. So when Kenya’s very own deputy pres. Ruto announced that he was commissioning the Google Beba Card, I was excited because it not only moved us closer to Vision 2030, but it also went to affirm our faith that the new government is embracing ICT.

The initiative is in conjunction with Equity Bank, one of Kenya’s largest footprint banks whose model of attracting the low income mwananchi has placed them among one of the largest customer base banks in Kenya. It is run by Dr. James Mwangi, crowned Africa Forbes Person of the Year, 2012. Brilliant man he is. I sat and watched during his acceptance speech how he borrowed about 300 Million KES from Mr. Muguku as Equity’s startup capital anyway, I digress. Back to the card solution – the Beba pay card is meant to revolutionalize the transport industry in Kenya which is currently chaotic and has been the root of some genius Kenyan trending topics like #CarPoolKE.

I have a few questions though:

Let’s us be honest, Kenya currently has a poor road network. Not so much can be said about the rail network either. It is currently much easier, and safer, for a CEO to take his own car and sit in traffic for 2 hours as opposed to sitting in a train or bus and catching up on his sleep there.

Why? Because the guys who sit at the top find it hard to identify with common mwananchi problems. The card is a great idea. I was lucky enough to travel to Europe where I used a card exactly like this one extensively both on the train to and from Rotterdam and on the buses in Amsterdam as well. The cards work on the principle of debit where you pay an amount and get allocated ‘minutes’ according to the amount you have paid.

Get on a bus, check in when you enter and check out when you drop off. Simple enough.

I try to imagine this scenario in Nairobi and I don’t think it works out quite well. I encountered a problem last year when I hopped onto a City Hoppa (see what I did there?) to Karen at around 8 PM. This Hoppa had the tap-and-pay system. As I was about to pay my fare, the conductor said, “Hapana boss. Ikifika saa hii tunataka cash! Tutalipa sanse aje nah ii cadi yenu?” This is Swahili for “During this hour, we only take cash! How will we bribe a policeman with this card of yours?”

Reason being they want to pocket some of the money that will be collected as fare. Perhaps they do not earn enough. Perhaps they are just greedy. As for the cops, let us not even got there.

What would have happened had I not carried paper money? Your guess would be as good as mine.

That really got me thinking as to how this is going to be implemented. Are we putting the cart before the horse with this technology? Is it too early?

I need to say here that I am no transport-logistics expert but everyone would agree that fixing the basic transport infrastructure would be the first thing to do.

How? Fix the roads. Then Fix the buses. Then Pay the staff (drivers, conductors and policemen) well so they won’t be so eager to steal from the system. Then make it so expensive to enter and park in town that people opt to leave cars at home.

Fix the infrastructure and then the money will come.

I am eager to see this Google Beba Pay card implemented say 5-6 years from now. When Dr. Mwangi and I are both seated in a Hoppa and I coerce him to pay my fare.

5-6 years from now my pal Kiragu, who sells ladies’ sweaters in Ngara, will not have a problem depositing 2,000 KES in his card so he can use for his monthly commute. He currently cannot do this because it is too expensive. He’d rather pay the daily rate of 80 bob to and from Jericho near Buruburu than invest in a monthly plan. Perhaps if Equity, and Google, incentivize him with a free commute twice a week, he will sign up. In 5-6 years. I don’t know, I am just saying. Same applies for Daniel Owira (the Otonglo Boy) who “lives in Kibera and works in Industrial Area”. Get him and his peers signed up and you will have won.

Make the card so secure that if mine gets stolen, it won’t matter much; either because I will find it cheap to replace and move on with life or because the thief cannot use it fearing that he will leave a digital trail that can get him traced and busted.

Raw ideas eey? I am just saying!

Another question I was asked by Jimmy Gitonga (@afrowave) when I asked him what he thought is this – Are Double M (currently the most organized and arguably the most profitable transportation company) in the system or is it just City Hoppas? Double M is relatively expensive but people (read my mum) still pay because its system works. This is the same reason we are addicted to M-Pesa despite the charges (and the recent increase in charges because government demanded they pay tax).

Oi!

I hadn’t even thought of that. That’s Food for Thought…

Your thoughts are most welcome in the ‘Comments” section below.

Image Courtesy, evanszablowski's Blog

Kenya has a new government that has promised laptops to the kids who are going to class one next year. This is part of the promised deliverables that H.E. President Uhuru’s, in his TNA party, made during presidential campaign rallies and it got so many people talking. After a brief research on the web, I got some good information on ‘laptops’ and unsupervised kids. Read it below:

Sometime early in 2012, some MIT Media Lab students embarked on a journey to a pair of remote, isolated and illiterate villages in Ethiopia. The two villages with about 20 first-grade-aged children each sat about 50 miles from Addis Ababa.

One was called Wonchi, on the rim of a volcanic crater at 11,000 feet; the other is called Wolonchete, in the Great Rift Valley. It was reported that the children there had never previously seen printed materials, road signs, or even packaging that had words on them.

The MIT students who visited brought with them a shipment of boxes with an unknown and unmarked cargo that was taped shut with no instructions on ‘how to use’. They left the boxes there and within approximately 4 minutes of arrival, the boxes were open and the first tablet was already powered on.

What happened next will challenge the role of teachers – 5 days of use later, a group of first grade students has an average of 47 apps per child.

A section article published in the MIT technology review read as follows:

“The kids had completely customized the desktop—so every kids’ tablet looked different. We had installed software to prevent them from doing that,” [Ed] McNierney [of One Laptop Per Child] said. “And the fact they worked around it was clearly the kind of creativity, the kind of inquiry, the kind of discovery that we think is essential to learning.”

After several months, the kids in both villages were still heavily engaged in using and recharging the machines, and had been observed reciting the “alphabet song,” and even spelling words. One boy, exposed to literacy games with animal pictures, opened up a paint program and wrote the word “Lion”.

Amazing, right?

What this experiment had set out to show was the amazing learning power that kids have. They were able to learn something from a tool they had previously not encountered before. Perhaps what we need is to have a little faith in under-privileged kids. That alongside instilling a ‘there is no barrier to learning” mentality in them; even in the absence of teachers to ‘train’ them how to use the laptops.

The initiative is called the One Laptop Per Child initiative and it aims to secure low-cost laptops for students in remote areas to help them connect with the rest of the world while learning a thing or two. Read about how Evansza Blowski documented it.

Key take away from this is in one of the article’s paragraphs paraphrased to ‘This is neither foreign aid; nor is it a handout to the people of Ethiopia. This is Education, and just the first step in enabling them.

Enabling the young minds of Africa for brighter futures. For a brighter nation, and a brighter continent.

Microsoft has remained a strong participant and contributor to Intellectual Property. The company has been a part of World Intellectual Property Organization efforts in actively recognizing the World Intellectual Property (IP) Day (celebrated on 26th April of every year) – An event that urges governments, industry and consumers to promote discussion about the significance of protecting IP rights. Respect for the rule of law is a strong contributor to the IP rights culture, which is in turn essential in spurring innovation in local economies. An increase in legitimate technology businesses can add revenue that supports a country’s government programs and other infrastructure goals, creates jobs, increases profits for the broader industry, and helps create a strong business ecosystem. Environments where genuine software thrives also pave the way for better protection for consumers and businesses that know they can feel secure by avoiding the risks that come from using non-genuine software.

“Software piracy and the efforts to illegally profit from counterfeit and pirated software have become increasingly sophisticated and complex, which is why it is so critical to continue to work toward stronger, more effective IP protection,” said Juan Hardoy, director,EMEA Anti-Counterfeiting and Digital Crime, Microsoft, who spoke at this week’s Seventh Global Congress on Combating Counterfeiting and Piracy in Istanbul. “Microsoft is dedicated to educating consumers and businesses on the real risks they face from the dangerous malware, viruses and spyware that so often result from counterfeit and pirated software.”

“Without proper intellectual property law enforcement, we lack safety in revealing our brilliant ideas. Anyone can claim ownership of a potentially life-changing application, service or revolutionary product,” said Edward Sigei, Chief Legal Counsel of the Kenya Copyright Board. “The Kenya Copyrght Board is committed to the protection of copyright to create a healthy environment for growth of businesses and also protect creators and innovators from unscrupulous dealers,” Sigei added.

Microsoft commissioned a study conducted by IDC in early 2013, which found that one in every three PCs with counterfeit software installed will be infected with malware. It is because of these infections that consumers are forced to spend 1.5 Billion hours and about 22 billion dollars just in identifying, repairing and recovering from the impact of malware, while global enterprises will spend 114 billion dollars just dealing with the impact of a malware-induced cyber-attack on productivity machines. The sheer amount of counterfeit software available is significant, with the total number of counterfeit software programs expected to be installed in 2013 exceeding 2 billion, more than triple the amount in 2006.

You can access more on the IDC study on the Microsoft Play It Safe website. You can also find more information on how to avoid purchasing non genuine software is available on How to Tell. To help people and organizations around the world better understand the value of building a sound Intellectual Property environment and the ramifications of using non-genuine or counterfeit software, you can read more on the Microsoft website here.

Last week on Saturday Kampala was abuzz with talk of how the Ugandan Warid Telecom Uganda, a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi based  Essar group had been bought out by the second largest teleco and market  challenger Airtel, subsidiary of Bharti Airtel from India. It was confirmed later in the week with a Presser from Airtel. Most people were surprised that for the first time Airtel was not on the receiving end of a re-brand having gone through a series of 5 re-brands since its start back in 1995. That in itself has been an arduous journey which has brought them many fortunes and quite many misfortunes as they struggled to erase the bitter taste the very first brand had left in people’s mouths. And no, I will not go off on a tangent.

Whereas for most people the acquisition will carry a very immediate consequence: the people who have tough times ahead  are the Airtel group who have had lots of bleeding money losses across francophone Africa as the brand uptake by the locals was not as immediate and zealous as they had perhaps hoped. Further to that, there was talk earlier on this year that the government of Tanzania taking back its shares in the Airtel subsidiary.  Like Uganda the subsidiary holds a sturdy second position. The move by the government would effectively evict the telecom from the  market.  This fear could be the one that pushed the corporate strategists to try and consolidate a market leadership position in either Kenya or Uganda. However with the supremacy of Safaricom looming in Kenya, the idea or a market raid seemed untenable. Nascent Uganda was the opportunity of a lifetime. Could the Warid acquisition be a minor stop gap that is just meant to slow the roll of the ship’s descent? Or is that assumption too harsh?

On the other hand Warid had transformed itself from the pits wherein it had first mired itself after its first initial boisterous entry into the market. They hired everyone from everywhere and payed them whatever salary they asked for; those were the glory days. The reality soon hit and they had to downsize massively, operate as a lean, mean machine. It is perhaps in this period of darkness that Warid stumbled on the idea, perception becomes reality; that if enough people want something it will happen. There begun the journey to change Warid into the most preferred network in Uganda. From leading the way into the price wars, selling the lowest denominations of airtime, having the most convenient packages all the way to having the most memorable ads year after year, Warid did distinguish themselves from the pack. They even went on to earn the much coveted ‘Super-brand’ status after only 5 years in the industry! Endeared to the people for being the “people’s brand” and reviled by the competition for always setting their teeth on edge. Warid  earned the right to be bought, if only just so that Warid tower at the roundabout can stop chiming and reminding Airtel!

It has been said by many industry experts that because they were the only ones that had attained critical mass in the market and MTN were the only one who were making profits. The other telecoms, even though they were breaking even simply did not have the critical numbers to make a profit. It is estimated that UCC had predicted that some industry players were losing up to $3M a month. The buy-out of Warid stands out clearly as the boldest step taken by any of the smaller telecom companies to challenge MTN with its towering 7 million customers. Here maybe it’s important to note that the nearest challenger Airtel comes at a distant second with 4 ½ million customers. With their new position Airtel now take on Warid’s aggressively grown 2 ½ million customers to bring them to around 7 million well within striking range of MTN. The erosion of the subscriber base advantage will make it a bare knuckle fight to the death.

Do you ever ask yourself, but why Uganda? Why do telecoms always think Uganda is the business pearl of Africa? The answer to that lies in understanding the age old dynamic that all analysts and agencies sell to their clients, the most beautiful demographic curve an investor would like to see. Whenever investors are told that 70% of Uganda is under the age of 30, you can almost hear them singing. Why? Because this indicates that in countries with young demographics, there is always a promise of exponential growth as these young people come of age and become a whole new market to whom services and products can be marketed. For the next ten years at least, about 1,000,000 million youth will be coming of age in Uganda. Can you imagine what that means for beverages, telecoms, banking, education, health, resource distribution and other human dependent growth indicators? So yes, the investors will sink in the money and wait.

And of course the state of affairs is not helped by the high media penetration figures (Uganda has a radio penetration rate of 99.9%) with a literacy rate of over 50% (some people argue that its 67% but I tend to think Ugandans have a knack for exaggeration) there is also a whole section of the population is highly susceptible to marketing and its gimmicks: Investors’ paradise.

Yes, there was talk about Vodacom buying into the telecom when the news first broke last year but it would seem they only wanted to purchase a 49% stake in the telecom. Mostly because their agreement with their northern hemisphere sister Vodafone won’t let them pick anything above the equator but most likely because the figures for Ugandan telecoms looks scary at a glance.

What will the rest of the telecom companies do now? [Orange and Uganda Telecom]

It would seem the rest of the industry has been left out to dry. With two large telecoms in the market precedent across the continent, the smaller telecoms will attrition subscribers until they either merge or shut down. The mathematics would suggest that if UTL’s 1 million customers and Orange’s 800,000 customers were to stay on their respective networks the cost of keeping the network functional amid-st the astronomical interconnection fees to the other 14 million customers would be unfeasible. Unless of course the people who are called the most like the cabinet, parliament, the entire SME category were on these two networks, then these networks could hope to generate enough money in interconnect fees from the bigger networks to stay afloat. So it is safe to say that within 36 months if nothing drastic happens the two smallest telecoms will go under. The argument that the Ugandan government will not let Uganda Telecom go under holds no water. The track record that LAP Green (majority shareholders in UTL ) have maintained across Africa with various failed telecom subsidiaries is not one to  rely on.

The often used argument that Orange will survive on providing data since it has set itself up as the data provider for choice for the market may also not hold against the consistent knocking of that proposition by competition. (Smile Telecom have been testing an LTE (4G) signal since start of the year and yesterday MTN was launching its LTE signal at the airstrip with MTNRally). Unless Orange goes purely ISP to defend its turf, it will appear to succumb to the same woes that befell its sister in Kenya with ever dwindling market share. This is interesting because the scenario that they are facing with Anglophone Africa is exactly what Airtel is facing in Francophone Africa. One could even have suggested why didn’t they just buy each other out?

In the end, the numbers will count for more than the public opinion, but for what its worth we will miss one of Uganda. [Though miracles do happen, UTL could use a sack of money too+ lots of expertise]. Again I speak not as an expert but a mere onlooker.

This post was first published by @Ruthie on Ruthaine.